Frequently Asked Questions about the Universal Decision-Making Method

Question 1

What is the Universal Decision-Making Method?

Accepted Answer

A decision-making framework for leaders, developed by Grant Purdy and Roger Estall over nearly 50 years of advisory practice. It guides a Decider through: framing the decision (Purpose, Opportunity, Context), identifying tentative decision elements, surfacing and ranking assumptions using a significance matrix, testing for sufficient certainty, and implementing with built-in monitoring. Designed for decision making under uncertainty. Published in Deciding (2020).

Question 2

What is sufficient certainty?

Accepted Answer

Sufficient certainty is the point at which you have enough confidence in your assumptions to proceed with a decision. Not maximum certainty, not perfect information. The Universal Decision-Making Method defines it as the threshold where remaining uncertainty is acceptable given the significance of the assumptions you are relying on.

Question 3

How is this different from risk management?

Accepted Answer

Risk management starts with what could go wrong and builds registers, matrices, and controls around hazards. The Universal Decision-Making Method starts with what is this decision actually for (Purpose) and works forward through assumptions. Risk management is a framework for managing risk. This is a method for making decisions. The distinction is Appendix C of Deciding.

Question 4

What is a Decision Record?

Accepted Answer

The output of a Walk. A clear, concise document that records your Purpose, the decision you are making, your ranked assumptions (Critical, Important, Relevant, Limited), your assessment of sufficient certainty, and what you will monitor. It is designed to be forwarded to a board, team, or co-founder as a clear record of your reasoning.

Question 5

What is decision quality?

Accepted Answer

Decision quality is the degree to which a decision rests on well-examined assumptions, connects clearly to Purpose, and includes monitoring that will detect when conditions change. The Universal Decision-Making Method defines it not by outcome but by the rigour of the process: were assumptions surfaced, ranked by significance, and tested for sufficient certainty before the decision was made?

Question 6

What is decision coaching?

Accepted Answer

Decision coaching is structured guidance through a specific decision you are facing now. Unlike consulting, which delivers a report, decision coaching walks you through the reasoning yourself using the Universal Decision-Making Method. The Walk is a decision coaching tool: you bring one decision, work through the steps, and leave with a Decision Record that records what you decided, what you assumed, and what you will monitor.

Question 7

Who developed this method?

Accepted Answer

Grant Purdy and Roger Estall developed the Universal Decision-Making Method over nearly 50 years of advisory practice across mining, finance, aviation, and government. Grant contributed to the development of ISO 31000 (the international standard for risk management) and, after decades inside that work, concluded that the standard's framing was the problem. Deciding (2020) was their last work together. Roger died on 21 June 2023.

You have a decision to make